PETROANALYSIS || ARTICLE

Complex, and even disturbing, new realities

Article by

Mazhar Al-Shereidah

Uncertainties are increasing in the different aspects of international relations, and this fact is now determining the very nature not only of commerce but also the most simple rules of a free market economy – let alone the aspiration of globalization.

The US is in this sense amidst harsh confrontations with both China, which can be seen as a strategic rival, as well as with the EU that is traditionally seen as an historic ally since the birth of NATO. But even this emblematic political-military organization which for around half a century symbolized the equilibrium between East and West and served as the powerful shield for the “Free World ” against Communism, is being now questioned by its very founder: Washington.

And it is not that Russia is now seen by America as less threatening. On the contrary, it is being seen as more dangerous than ever. Accusations and threats of withdrawal from agreements that gave the world system a relative stability characterize present relations between the US and Russia.

Putin’s success in the Middle East is perceived by many as a retreat of the US from a strategic region for the fate of Eurasia. Moscow is not only trusted by Turkey and Iran, but is also a strategic ally of Israel… All this however was limited to the Eastern Hemisphere, but suddenly turmoil has appeared in the Caribbean, with Venezuela in the centre. This is a completely new reality that brings with it a set of theories and spectaculations to explain this disturbing situation.

Is Uncle Sam so eager to get hold of the world’s largest oil reserves? By sending two strategic bombers in a short visit to Venezuela, did Moscow bring back the dramatic memories of the Khrushchev-Kennedy era and the nuclear missiles episode in Cuba? Has the Iran-Israel conflict in Syria transcended itself and its regional dimension? Is the anti-Castro lobby in Florida preparing the scene for a future electoral victory for Trump?

Too many and complex questions to be answered here and now although the inability to do so is not a relief for anxiety.

On February 27th Putin will again receive Netanyahu and the main subject is the military coordination in Syria to avoid further Irani entrenchment. The question is whether the Caribbean issue is on the unannounced agenda!

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