PETROANALYSIS || ARTICLE

The Rules of Engagement have now changed

Article by

Mazhar Al-Shereidah

“No to war” is the message that seems to be on the minds of most people concerned with the relationship between the USA and Iran.

Most importantly, in both countries the real policymakers new exactly the extension, duration and limits of the highly explosive episode that gave the impression to having brought the whole Middle East to the brink of a major conflict.

With regard to oil, easy-to-grasp dramatic speculations came to the front… maps appeared in the media showing all possible targets..refineries, pipelines, navigation routs!

The price of $ 100/b for at least the first half of 2020 was thought by some as timid.

Fantasies flew high, Energy Crisis and the end of capitalism for some .. and a new wave of heavy investments in Shale oil & gas for others…

As will be seen from a selection of scripts and quotations easily available to the common man that PETROANALYSIS will provide, the rules of the game were previously announced.

Washington considered that the rules that govern its relationship with Iran had to undergo a revision. The other side of the equation has its own means to influence the outcome of the announced objective.

The ultimate objective for the Trump Administration with regard to Iran is to renegociate some of the terms of the Agreement signed by Obama but not to have war with Tehran.

So far, the unilateral withdrawal by Washington wasn’t accompanied by any other signatory.

And it is perhaps in this sence that the most recent tactical iniciatives did give Mr.Trump some kind of a victory. Yet it has to be clarified that it was rather the downing of the Ukranian passenger plane and its numerous victims from several countries that changed the mood in London, Berlin, and Paris.

Back in 2014, Russia was accused of shooting down flight MH17 of Malasia Airlines in Ukraine and sanctions against Moscow were solicited.

Now the victims are, among others, from Canada, Ukraine, UK, Germany, Sweden.. and most likely none of these countries would be satisfied by the official excuses that Tehran is offering and that means pressure could be soon mounting.

It is yet to be seen if this new factor will bring about a significant change in the geopolitical realities of the Middle East. Less certain is that it will have a lasting impact on the price of oil and the oil market altogether.

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